Radiotherapy demand in Scotland to grow
 The number of new cancer cases diagnosed each year in Scotland is expected to reach 31,500 within 10 years, compared with 25,500 in 2001. By 2020 there could be 34,000 new cases a year; most of the increase will be down to the growing number of elderly people. Large increases are anticipated in the number of oesophageal, prostate and colorectal cancers, with a fall in only lung, cervix and stomach tumours.
The predictions come from a planning report published by the Scottish Executive on the future of radiotherapy services. It recommends big changes in the services to meet an expected increase in demand of between 38 and 81 per cent. Just under half of the new cancer cases which will be diagnosed by 2015 are likely to need radiotherapy as
part of initial disease management. In response, Scottish health minister Andy Kerr is reported to be drawing-up plans to spend extra cash on radiotherapy training.
By 2008 Scotland will have 25 linear accelerator machines between five centres. Another 13 machines will be needed if the predicted demand were to be met with existing working patterns, said the report. It recommends a more intensive use of the equipment, 10 hours a day with a six-day working week a possibility.
A Radiotherapy Advisory Group, reporting to the Scottish Cancer Group is being established to:
a) Monitor clinical practice, impact of extended hours and capacity constraints;
b) Co-ordinate developments such as IMRT and IGRT to ensure equitable access;
c) Co-ordinate efforts to ensure that all linear accelerators have an approximately equal workload;
d) Repeat the current review of capacity and demand in 3-4 years' time to ensure adequate lead time if additional capacity is found to be required.
Radiotherapy activity planning for Scotland 2011-2015 PDF (1.9MB)
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